Benfica vs Real Madrid prediction, odds & betting tips 17/02/2026
A place in the UEFA Champions League's round of 16 will be at stake when Benfica host Real Madrid in the first leg of their playoff tie at Estadio da Luz on Tuesday, 17 February 2026.
View our free Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions below.
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Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions: Cards expected
Key stats
- Benfica's last five matches have all gone above the 4.5-card threshold.
- Five of Real Madrid's last six games produced at least 11 cards.
- Real Madrid have drawn first blood in seven consecutive matches.
Correct score prediction: Benfica 2-2 Real Madrid
Real Madrid have won six of their last seven matches across all competitions, and the only game they failed to win in that stretch was a 4-2 defeat at this stadium last month.
To be fair, the stakes are much higher now for Los Blancos than they were when these teams last met, and although they are expected to fare better, Alvaro Arbeloa's troops are up against a Benfica side that lost only once in their last nine home games across all competitions.
With Benfica being on a five-game unbeaten run (W4, D1), we believe they will hold their own against Real Madrid in a high-scoring stalemate.
Pre-game odds and win probability: Benfica up against it
- HOME: 13/5 (3.60) – 27.8%
- DRAW: 3/1 (4.00) – 25%
- AWAY: 9/10 (1.90) – 52.6%
*Odds from Ladbrokes, subject to change
Real Madrid narrowly missed out on an automatic top-eight berth after a 4-2 defeat to Benfica in the final round of the league phase last month. Although Los Blancos opened their campaign with three straight victories, they lost their grip on the top eight by losing three of their final five games.
Benfica’s journey was the polar opposite. After kicking off their campaign with four consecutive defeats, the Eagles rallied to win three of their last four, clawing their way into the final playoff spot.
While Real Madrid cruised to a comfortable 4-1 victory against Real Sociedad last weekend, Benfica narrowly defeated Santa Clara 2-1 on the road, extending their unbeaten run to five matches.
Ahead of this encounter, Real Madrid are the expected winners at 9/10 (1.90). Teams with these odds generally have a 52.6% probability of winning.
Don’t forget to check out more of our best betting tips and predictions after you’ve dissected our Benfica vs Real Madrid predictions.
It is also worth mentioning that up to nine cards were awarded when these teams met last month. Keeping in mind that Benfica's last five matches have all produced at least five cards, over 4.5 total cards has an appealing look at 13/10 (2.30). That one has a 43.5% chance of landing.
Most recent H2Hs: Vengeance on the cards?
Benfica defeated Real Madrid 4-2 at Estadio da Luz last month in a game Los Blancos finished with nine men. It will be interesting to see if Jose Mourinho’s troops will hold their own once again.
UEFA Champions League 28/01/26
Benfica
Real Madrid
UEFA Champions League 08/03/22
Real Madrid
Benfica
UEFA Champions League 15/02/22
Benfica
Real Madrid
Benfica preview: Injury woes continue
As it was in Friday's contest at Santa Clara, Benfica are expected to remain without up to six players going into this UEFA Champions League playoff against Real Madrid.
Alexander Bah, who has been out of contention since last February due to a cruciate ligament injury, is expected to be back next week, with his year-long recovery closer than ever.
The other absentees for this game include Nuno Felix, Richard Rios, Samuel Soares, Joao Veloso and Henrique Araujo.
Predicted lineup: Trubin (GK), Dahl, Otamendi, T. Araujo, Dedic, Barreiro, Aursnes, Prestianni, Silva, Schjelderup & Pavlidis.
Last five matches
- 13/02/26: Santa Clara 1-2 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 08/02/26: Benfica 2-1 Alverca (Primeira Liga)
- 01/02/26: Tondela 0-0 Benfica (Primeira Liga)
- 28/01/26: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League)
- 25/01/26: Benfica 4-0 Estrela (Primeira Liga)
Real Madrid preview: Few key absences
Real Madrid will definitely be without Eder Militao and Jude Bellingham for this trip to Lisbon, as both players are ruled out with hamstring injuries.
Los Blancos will also have to do without Raul Asencio and Rodrygo Goes, as both players were sent off in the final round of the league phase and are suspended for this match.
The leading scorer in this season's competition, Kylian Mbappe, was not available as Real Madrid thrashed Real Sociedad on Saturday, but the Frenchman is expected to be back in the starting XI for this match. However, if Mbappe is not fit enough, youngster Gonzalo Garcia should start in his place.
Predicted lineup: Courtois (GK), Alexander-Arnold, Rudiger, Huijsen, Carreras, Valverde, Tchouameni, Camavinga, Guler, Vinicius Jr & Mbappe.
Last five matches
- 14/02/26: Real Madrid 4-1 Real Sociedad (La Liga)
- 08/02/26: Valencia 0-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
- 01/02/26: Real Madrid 2-1 Rayo Vallecano (La Liga)
- 28/01/26: Benfica 4-2 Real Madrid (UEFA Champions League)
- 24/01/26: Villarreal 0-2 Real Madrid (La Liga)
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